What are the chances of a confrontation between countries at a global level that will originate from the war between Russia and Ukraine? — ¿Qué probabilidades existen de que ocurra un enfrentamiento entre países a nivel global que tengan como origen la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania?

Francisco Martínez
4 min readJun 4, 2024

What are the chances of a confrontation between countries at a global level that will originate from the war between Russia and Ukraine?

The possibility of the war between Russia and Ukraine triggering a global confrontation depends on several factors and geopolitical scenarios. Here are some key points to consider:

Factors that increase the risk of global escalation

1. Direct involvement of NATO:

If NATO is forced to intervene directly in defense of one of its members due to the expansion of the conflict, this could escalate quickly. Russia has repeatedly warned against NATO intervention, and a direct conflict between NATO forces and Russia could involve more countries and lead to a full-scale war (BLOG).

2. Use of nuclear weapons:

o The threat of Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, although considered low, remains a concern. A nuclear escalation could have devastating consequences and provoke global intervention due to the need to…

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